A note for the reader: Before this newsletter moved to Substack it was an email thread between friends. I’m posting the previous emails here for completeness, and so that if I invoke a previous comment readers can refer to them.
Hi Friends!!!
Crazy week for me here. Not just work-wise, though. SO many good things to send along. Somehow narrowed it down to 10. Might revisit a few of them in later weeks if they hold up…running list had >30!
Be well!
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1) Living with ‘Rona: What do you get when the only doctor in a rural county is also its highest-elected official? Lots of testing
2) Politics: A fun visualization of Ideological spread by DW-Nominate of senators (on desktop can click+drag to see clusters of members).
3) Fun/Wild World: “It’s a bird! It’s a plane, It’s…” probably not the ancestor to modern Caribbean lizards.
4) Politics: How much should we care about those “Joe!” polls? Not a ton, but historical trends suggest they are probably more predictive than ever.
5) Economics: This paper is a year old, but as relevant today as ever. Folks, we’re in for a whirlwind of debate about how the government can’t afford to spend more. Check out figure 18 on what contributes to the low-low real interest rates in our world of secular stagnation, and more in the paper about why we should spend more. As for what to do about the debate over the issue, we should accept that budget maintenance is more important than budget deficits. (More on that next week)
6) COVID Forecasting: A vaccine in 18 months? If everything goes right.
7) Economics: Scaling up can be hard for any firm or social program. How do you get a good sense on the actual cost of labor? Strategically randomize your hiring.
8) Philosophy/Future: Anyone who has been forcibly subjected to my musings (sorry!) has probably heard me wonder what future generations will condemn us for, leading to overwrought apologies (“We didn’t get that eating meat was bad!”) and generational divides. A philosopher took up the same question in 2010.
9) Fun/Living with ‘Rona: While most people were making fun of Pete’s haircut, I was also intently deciphering which books were on his bookshelf (ugh fine I also was mostly making fun of the haircut). It looks like I was not alone in this new Zoom practice (should I know who Andy Cohen is?).
10) History/Culture: Exercise has changed a lot over the years, not just in its form but in its purpose. This essay covers a wide range of the mid 19c. gymnastics movements that found interconnections with members’ spiritual and social lives. As a warning, the essay is quite sprawling and not very focused. However, the story of indian clubs, now a forgotten exercise form, underlies a much more interesting connection between the physical and social/spiritual. Unfortunately, the author comes short of discussing the sports that took the place of this gymnastics at length — volleyball (“mintonette”) and basketball — founded at Young Men’s Christian Associations (YMCAs), which were at the center of the movement around focusing on the connection between mind — body — spirit, and fostering social institutions around thee three not as separate entities but as a unified trio (hence the Y’s “balanced triangle” logo).
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Your Weekly Recommendation: Mrs. America tells the story of the fight over the Equal Rights Amendment. It is spectacular television. Check it out on Hulu.
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Graphs of the week (all credit to WSJ):
1) “Tomorrow is a latter day…” (100 = neutral)
2) Marriage is at its lowest level since being recorded (y-axis is unions formed annually per 1000 people). Flattening out in 2010? My supposition is reflective of same-sex marriage steadily being legalized in large-population states (DC in 2010, NY 2011, CA/ME/WA 2012) then of course, Hollingsworth v Perry in 2013.
3) Didn’t spend that stimulus check? You’re not alone…
4) America, nowhere near first.
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Harrison